Are you getting caught up in "PBP Fever" but concerned that you wont have a shot since you didn't ride any long brevets last year? Fear not, you may still have a chance for the grand dance. Mark Thomas continues his analysis of US pre-registration data and trends:
April 20: Working on the US PBP pre-registrations, I'm getting more optimistic that riders who did not ride brevets in 2010 will have the opportunity to participate in PBP 2011.
Our US quota is 719.
RUSA had 328 riders who did 1000km or longer brevets in 2010. So far 64% of those have preregistered for PBP (210 riders).
RUSA had 418 riders whose longest brevet was 600km in 2010. So far 157 have signed up.
Speculation zone ahead:
If the signup pattern for the 600k group matches that of the first group, I'd expect to see about 185 riders (45%) sign up from this group.
Of the 238 riders whose longest brevet was 400km in 2010, I'm guessing that 40% (95 riders) will preregister.
Of the 277 riders whose longest brevet was 300km in 2010, I'm guessing that 30% (83 riders) will preregister.
Of the 488 riders whose longest brevet was 200km in 2010, I'm guessing that 20% (97 riders) will preregister.
That's a total of 670 preregistering riders, leaving nearly 50 slots for US riders who didn't do any brevets in 2010.
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